Reporter | Chen Bing
On the occasion of Chinese New Year in the Year of the Loong, Russians are busy preparing for the general election from March 15th to 17th, which will be the first highlight of the global "super election year" in 2024.
According to the Global Times, the Russian Central Election Commission announced the list of candidates for the presidential election on February 8. In addition to Putin, the other three candidates are Russian Duma Vice Chairman Da Vankov, Liberal Democratic Party leader slutsky and communist party candidate Harry Tonov.
According to a poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center, 62% of the respondents said they would definitely vote, 14% said they might vote, 4% said they might not vote, and 7% said they would definitely not vote.
The poll was conducted by telephone interview on February 8, and a total of 1,600 Russian citizens over the age of 18 were surveyed. Among the respondents who intend to vote, 75% said they would support Putin in the general election, 5% said they would support Vladislav da Vankov, the candidate of the New Party, Nikola Khaled Tonov, the candidate of the Russian Communist Party, and Leonid slutsky, the candidate of the Liberal Democratic Party, tied for third place with 4% support rate. The results of the latest polls show that the number of people who support Putin’s re-election this time is very close to the 76.69% vote rate of Putin in the latest 2018 general election.
As a world-class power that ranks among the "five permanent members" of the United Nations, holds a powerful nuclear arsenal, vast resources and global political influence, Russia, which has experienced two years of Russian-Ukrainian conflict, has become a hot topic of global concern at the juncture of this general election.
Above: On February 12, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin presided over the Russian Economic Work Conference.
Who is singing "Against Taiwan" with Putin?
Compare the four candidates who participated in the Russian presidential election-in terms of age, Harry Tonov is the oldest, 75 years old; The youngest is da Vankov, who has just turned 40. In terms of academic qualifications, all four candidates have received higher education. Putin and Harry Tonov are associate doctors in economics (equivalent to Dr. China), da Vankov is associate doctor in sociology, and slutsky is doctor in economics (equivalent to postdoctoral fellow in China).
In terms of election experience, two of the four presidential candidates have participated in the presidential election. Putin participated in the presidential election four times, and Harry Tonov participated in a presidential election in 2004. Slutsky and da Vankov ran for the first time this year.
In terms of duties, except Russian President Vladimir Putin, the other three candidates are all members of the State Duma (lower house of parliament), Da Vankov is the vice chairman of the State Duma, slutsky is the chairman of the State Duma International Affairs Committee, and Harry Tonov is the chairman of the State Duma Far East and Arctic Development Committee.
In terms of property, according to the income information submitted by four people from 2017 to 2023, Da Vankov earned the most. His income in six years was about 76.91 million rubles (about 5.945 million yuan), and his wife earned 810,000 rubles (about 62,000 yuan). Slutsky has the lowest income, with an income of about 35.98 million rubles (about 2.78 million yuan) and his wife’s income of 29.16 million rubles (about 2.25 million yuan). Putin has the largest deposit, about 54.41 million rubles (about 4.205 million yuan), and slutsky has the least deposit, with only 1,285 rubles (about 990,000 yuan). However, slutsky has the most real estate, with 7 properties; Putin has the least real estate, only an apartment and a parking space in St. Petersburg.
Apart from Putin who registered for the election by self-nomination, who are the other three-Da Vankov, slutsky and Harry Tonov?
Gou Liwu, an assistant professor at the School of Marxism of Tongji University and a young researcher at the Russian Research Center of East China Normal University, the key research base of humanities and social sciences of the Ministry of Education, told Xinmin Weekly that Vladislav da Vankov was born in Smolensk in 1984 and was the youngest of the four presidential candidates. Da Vankov graduated from Moscow University in 2006, joined nechayev’s company in the same year, and was promoted to vice president in 2013. In 2020, nechayev founded the New Party, and appointed Da Vankov as the chairman of the Central Executive Committee. In 2021, he was elected as a member of the Russian Duma, and Duma Chairman Volodin appointed Da Vankov as the vice chairman of the Duma. Da Vankov is a rare moderate opposition. During the COVID-19 epidemic, it opposed compulsory vaccination. In the Russian vote to recognize the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk, the New Party was the only party that abstained. In addition, da Vankov also supported the candidacy of Najreddin, a fellow candidate.
Slutsky, born in 1968, is the leader of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party and has rich professional experience. Since 1999, he has served in the State Duma and successively served as the first vice-chairman and chairman of the State Duma International Affairs Committee. Because he has a doctorate in economics, he has served as a teacher in colleges and universities, a senior bank manager and an adviser to the mayor of Moscow. It is worth noting that slutsky has been accused of sexual harassment, violation of traffic regulations, bribery and many other charges, among which Nabal also accused him of illegally accumulating wealth. Since 2014, slutsky has been sanctioned by many countries in the United States and the European Union for supporting Putin’s policy on the Ukrainian crisis.
Harry Tonov, born in 1948, is a member of the Russian Communist Party of party member. He is the oldest of the four candidates. Harry Tonov, a former party member of the Agricultural Party, has served in the State Duma since 1994. He quit the Agricultural Party in 2007 because he was dissatisfied with the cooperation between the Agricultural Party and the United Russia Party, and joined communist party in 2008, with strong support from zyuganov. Since 2011, he has served as the chairman of the Far East and Arctic Development Committee. Harry Tonov once participated in the presidential election on behalf of the Russian Communist Party in 2004, with 13.69% of the votes second only to Putin. Although Harry Tonov opposed Putin’s series of propositions, Harry Tonov was sanctioned by the United States and the West for supporting Putin’s position on the Ukrainian crisis.
Several forces in Russian politics today
The political map of Russia has changed greatly in the past 24 years. Yekaterina Denzova, a candidate who opposed the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, announced that she would participate in the 2024 presidential election as an independent candidate and launched an anti-war political platform, but the Russian Central Election Commission rejected her nomination. Later, Deng Zuowa found another way to set up the Dawn Party, but it still ended without results. And Deng Zuowa had the same experience as Najreddin, who sharply criticized the "special military action". Although Najreddin won the signature support of more than 100,000 voters, it was questioned.
In fact, even if Deng Zuowa and Najreddin can participate in the presidential election, they will not pose any threat to Putin. However, the Russian Central Election Commission still prohibits them from participating in the election for the same reason, and there is no information about these two candidates in the final list of candidates.
Gou Liwu pointed out that after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, all the participating republics started the so-called "democratic transformation" to varying degrees, and also established a political party election system similar to that of the West during this period, but some of them did not completely copy the free election system of the West, but merged their own political traditions. Russia, Ukraine and Belarus have all participated in the presidential election independently. In Russia, Yeltsin, the first president, and then Putin and Medvedev all participated in the presidential election in an independent capacity and were successfully elected president. In Ukraine, the first President kravchuk, and later Kuchma and Yushchenko all participated in the presidential election as independent candidates and were successfully elected. In Belarus, from 1991 to the present, all previous presidential candidates participated in the presidential election as independent.
It is worth noting that Putin is not the leader of the All-Russian Party, but the leader of the All-Russian People’s Front. As a political party alliance, the All-Russian People’s Front includes United Russia Party, Just Russia-Patriot-For Truth Party, All-Russian Party "Motherland" Party, Newcomer Party, Russian Ecological Party "Green Party" and Russian Progressive Socialist Party. In Russia, in 2018 and this presidential election, although Putin participated in the presidential election as an independent candidate, he also had an identity as the leader of the All-Russian People’s Front.
According to the Russian election law, non-political party candidates need to be nominated by a group of at least 500 supporters, in addition, at least 300,000 supporters’ signatures need to be collected. The groups that nominated Putin included senior officials of the ruling United Russia Party, famous Russian actors and singers, athletes and other public figures. Therefore, Putin’s participation in the election as an independent candidate shows to a great extent that he represents the interests of all Russian people, rather than representing Russia through a certain political party.
Apart from the All-Russian People’s Front led by Putin, what are the main forces in Russian politics today?
Above: Russia will hold a presidential election from March 15th to 17th, 2024, and the voting will last for three days.
Xu Changzhi, deputy secretary-general of the Sino-Russian strategic cooperation high-end cooperation think tank of the China Academy of Social Sciences and a researcher at the Eurasian Institute for Social Development of the the State Council Development Research Center, said that according to the traditional classification method, there are probably several forces in the Russian Federation’s current political arena: first, the United Russia Party represents the traditional center-right forces; The second is the Russian Republic, just Russia-patriots-for the truth party, belonging to the center-left; The third is the liberal democratic party, which represents the extreme right forces; The fourth is the newly established New People’s Party, which is also a center-right force, but it is different from the traditional center-right force represented by all-Russian party representatives. It mainly represents young people who support the center-right position.
Since he became acting president of Russia on December 31, 1999 and took office on May 7, 2000, Putin has been in power for 24 years, from being president to being prime minister and then being president. In the past 24 years, various forces in Russian politics have probably developed in two ways: one is to be incorporated into the system and become the opposition in the establishment, such as the Russian Communist Party, the Communist Party of Russia, the Liberal Democratic Party and the New Party; On the other hand, if you take a position that does not support Putin, you will either be driven out of the country, put in prison, or fail to register as a presidential candidate.
Navalny’s death has limited impact.
It is particularly noteworthy that Russia’s main opposition leader Navalny died suddenly in prison recently. He was once regarded as the only person most likely to influence the presidential election. So, will his death affect the next general election?
Above: Ukraine confirmed that Navalny died of thrombosis.
Navalny, who is of Russian and Ukrainian descent at the same time, graduated from Russian People’s Friendship University, Federal University of Finance and Economics and Yale University successively. In 2000, he joined the United Democratic Party of Russia "Yabolu" and began to go into politics in 2002. Because of the discrepancy between his ideology and his political party, he was expelled from the party in 2007.
Later, he began to become a Russian dissident leader against Putin, and during the election of the Russian State Duma in 2011, he accused the United Russia Party of cheating in the election, organized demonstrations, and eventually turned into a nationwide anti-Putin incident and was arrested and imprisoned. On December 30, 2014, Navalny was found guilty of fraud and sentenced to imprisonment with a three-and-a-half-year suspension. However, in 2016, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation overturned this judgment.
In 2018, he was arrested several times, but was quickly released. In August 2020, he was suspected of being poisoned on his way back to Moscow from Siberia by plane, and Putin approved him to go to Germany for treatment. Navalny said that the behind-the-scenes ambassador of the "poisoning" incident was the Russian government, while the Russian government believed that it was directed and performed by Navalny and western intelligence agencies.
After escaping a robbery, he returned to Moscow in January 2021 and was detained as soon as he arrived at the airport. In 2021, he was sentenced to three and a half years in prison for economic crimes, and in 2022, he was sentenced to nine years in prison for contempt of court and election fraud. In August last year, he was sentenced to 19 years in prison for sedition and other crimes.
In December last year, Navalny’s spokesman claimed that after losing contact with him for three weeks, he found that he was transferred to the third prison of Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region in Siberia to serve his sentence. On February 14th this year, he also sent a message to his wife, You Liya, on social networking sites through his lawyer, with sweet photos of them. Unexpectedly, two days later, he died unexpectedly …
In response to Navalny’s accidental death, the EU adopted the 13th round of sanctions against Russia, and the United States also imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia. Ironically, later, the Ukrainian side announced that the information from the intelligence system that Navalny died of thrombotic disease indirectly proved that he was not killed by Putin. "According to the official Russian poll data, Putin’s public support rate still maintains an absolute advantage of 75%, so even if Navalny’s accidental death will have a certain impact on Russian society, in the early days of the’ special military operation’, the Russian government has taken countermeasures in the fields of society and public opinion, so it has little impact on the upcoming presidential election." Yan Liwu said. The support rate is as high as 75%, far higher than other candidates who follow closely. This means that in the Russian presidential election in 2024, there is no suspense for Putin to be re-elected. Reporter | Chen Bing