China’s ration self-sufficiency rate exceeds 100%, and there is no gap between grain supply and demand.
This year, China’s grain production has withstood many tests, such as epidemic, flood, typhoon, snowfall and meadow moth, and it is still expected to get another bumper harvest. The Economic Daily reporter learned from relevant parties that China’s total grain output is expected to exceed 650 million tons this year, and the grain supply is sufficient, so China has the ability to secure its rice bowl.
There is no gap between grain supply and demand.
A few days ago, a research institute released a report saying that by 2025, there may be a gap between grain production and demand of about 130 million tons in China, of which the gap between grain production and demand is about 25 million tons. Some people think that China will face food shortage.
In fact, there is a gap between grain production and demand, not a gap between grain supply and demand. At present, China’s grain stocks are sufficient, and the stored rice and wheat can feed the national consumers for more than one year. The self-sufficiency rate of corn is over 95%, and the grain supply can fully meet the market demand.
Xi Yinsheng, a researcher at the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told reporters that the gap between grain production and demand and the gap between supply and demand are two different concepts. The gap between production and demand refers to the shortage of annual output compared with demand, and the shortage is the gap between production and demand. The gap between supply and demand refers to the situation that the supply is not enough to meet the consumption demand. In addition to the output, the grain supply also includes the effective supply and import of the annual inventory. At present, there is no gap between supply and demand in China’s grain.
The gap between grain production and demand in China did not begin this year, mainly because of the limited soybean production capacity in China. The annual demand for soybeans in China is about 110 million tons, and more than 90% of soybeans need to be imported. 80% of imported soybeans are processed into feed and 20% into edible oil, which has little effect on the safety of rations. Cereals mainly include wheat, rice, corn, barley, sorghum, etc., among which wheat, rice and corn are also called the three staple foods, and wheat and rice are collectively called the two major rations. According to the white paper "Food Security in China" issued by China in 2019, the self-sufficiency rate of wheat and rice in China exceeds 100%, and the self-sufficiency rate of grain exceeds 95%.
At present, China’s grain production and demand are basically balanced, and there is no obvious gap between production and demand, but there are structural contradictions. Xi Yinsheng believes that the gap between grain production and demand in China is 25 million tons, mainly referring to the gap between corn production and demand. There is a big gap between corn production and demand, not because China’s production capacity is not enough, but because it is the initiative and inevitable requirement for China to promote the structural reform of agricultural supply side in recent years. At present, the widening gap between corn production and demand is only a phased problem of the adjustment of supply and demand, not a long-term problem. In the future, under the influence of market mechanism, China’s corn production is likely to resume growth, and the gap between production and demand is expected to gradually narrow and achieve a basic balance.
Although there is a gap between corn production and demand in China, there is no gap between supply and demand. In terms of output, although this year has been affected by the typhoon, it is still higher than last year. From the sales of stored corn, this year, the auction turnover of temporary storage corn in China exceeded 56 million tons, some of which have not yet been delivered out of the warehouse, and some of them have not been consumed after delivery, but have been transferred from state inventory to private inventory. According to the delivery schedule, it is estimated that more than 20 million tons of temporary storage auction corn will be carried forward to next year’s consumption. From the perspective of imports, from January to July this year, 4.57 million tons of corn was imported, up 30.7% year-on-year, and the market supply was completely no problem.
Superposition factors lead to food price fluctuation.
Data from the agricultural sector show that the output of summer grain and early rice increased this year, reaching 340.2 billion Jin, an increase of 4.48 billion Jin over the previous year, especially early rice, which reversed the downward trend for seven consecutive years. The harvest of autumn grain is drawing to a close, and it is estimated that the annual grain output will hit a record high again, and it will remain above 1.3 trillion Jin for six consecutive years, firmly holding the rice bowl in its own hands.
Xi Yinsheng believes that the epidemic situation has basically no obvious impact on grain production. Although floods have affected rice production in some areas, from the overall situation of the country, the years with sufficient precipitation are generally beneficial to grain production, and the probability of high yield is high. Three consecutive typhoons in Northeast China have caused maize lodging in some parts of Northeast China. However, due to the generally good growth of maize in the early stage, most of the yield of maize in Northeast China has basically formed when the typhoon occurred, and the actual impact is limited.
Adequate grain stocks are the "anchor needle" to stabilize the market. China’s grain storage consists of three categories: government storage, policy storage and enterprise commodity storage. Government reserves, including central grain reserves and local grain reserves, are "ballast stones" to ensure food security. Policy inventory is the inventory formed by the state’s policies of minimum purchase price and temporary storage. The inventory quantity is considerable and it is auctioned in the market all the year round. According to the data of the National Grain Trading Center, as of October 29th, this year, a total of 203 national policy grain auctions were organized, with a total auction volume of 96.956 million tons, effectively meeting the market demand. Enterprise commodity inventory refers to the self-owned inventory that enterprises need to establish for business turnover. At present, there are more than 40,000 enterprises in the system, and the inventory quantity is not small. "In recent years, the operational risk awareness of China’s grain enterprises has been further enhanced, and the willingness to build more stocks and master more grain sources has been significantly improved. At present, the commodity stocks of enterprises that have entered the system have increased by more than 20% year-on-year." Qin Yuyun, director of the Grain Reserve Department of the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau, said.
The food supply is guaranteed, but the prices of rice, wheat and corn have all increased to varying degrees this year, especially since October, the price of corn in Northeast China has increased greatly. Xi Yinsheng believes that the increase in grain prices this year is the result of the superposition of many factors. First of all, the global spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has aroused the international community’s concern about food security. Some countries have taken measures such as restricting exports, which has pushed up international food prices and transmitted them to China, thus affecting the trend of food prices. Secondly, the typhoon caused corn lodging in some parts of Northeast China, which led to a significant increase in corn harvest costs and pushed up corn prices. At the same time, the corn harvest and listing were delayed, and farmers’ reluctance to sell further strengthened the expectation of corn price increase. Thirdly, the boosting effect of market speculation on grain price increase is very obvious. Since the beginning of this year, hot money speculation on corn and other price increases are expected to be obvious, and frequent speculation on topics such as weather and epidemic situation has contributed to the increase in food prices.
From food security to food security
Food security has certain levels, which can be generally divided into three levels: ration security, grain security and food security. At present, China has achieved the goal of "basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety in rations", and the food security situation is at its best in history.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China has established a national food security strategy of "focusing on ourselves, basing itself on the domestic market, ensuring the production capacity, moderately importing and supporting by science and technology", and it is clear that we should rely on our own strength to concentrate the main domestic resources to ensure the basic self-sufficiency of cereals and the absolute safety of rations. Guoqiang Cheng, a member of the National Food Security Strategy Expert Advisory Committee and school of economics and management of Tongji University, believes that after years of unremitting efforts, China has established a "trinity" food security guarantee mechanism, that is, a domestic food production system with the core of ensuring the absolute safety of rations; A grain reserve system focusing on responding to all kinds of emergencies and maintaining market stability; The global agricultural product supply chain, which aims at making overall use of the international grain market and resources, supports and cooperates with each other. Among them, the domestic grain production system and reserve system embody the food security policy of "taking myself as the main factor and basing ourselves on the domestic market" and "grain is basically self-sufficient and rations are absolutely safe", while the global agricultural product supply chain is the policy design and path selection of "moderate import". By moderately importing non-staple agricultural products such as soybeans and meat, the pressure of insufficient domestic water and soil resources is alleviated and agricultural resources are concentrated to ensure rations production.
Food security is actually food security. According to the definition of FAO in 1983, the goal of food security is to "ensure that all people can buy and afford the basic food they need at any time". Nowadays, China’s food security has changed from the pursuit of "eating well" to "eating well", and the perspective of examining food security has shifted from food security to food security, and on the basis of ensuring "basic self-sufficiency of grain and absolute safety of rations", food sources have been continuously expanded. It is noteworthy that in recent years, while the rigid demand for food in China is increasing, the food consumption structure is also undergoing important changes, the consumption of rations is gradually decreasing, and the consumption of miscellaneous grains, vegetables, fruits, aquatic products and livestock products is increasing. Between "one drop and one increase", it reflects the trend of more diversified food demand of Chinese consumers.
"Under the new situation of diversified food consumption, we must establish a big food safety concept and attach importance to ‘ Rice bag ’ We should also pay attention to safety ‘ Shopping basket ’ Safety, build a diversified whole food industry system, meet people’s increasingly diverse food consumption needs, and protect residents’ food and nutrition needs at a higher level. " Xi Yinsheng said.