Russia incites the Middle East？ The unbearable weight of Putin
The Middle East has always been an arena for fierce competition among great powers. In recent months, the key part of this world geopolitical chess game has changed the situation because of a few clever moves by a chess player, that is, Russia launched an attack on ISIS in Syria.
According to the official Syrian news agency, since the Russian Air Force cooperated with the Syrian army at the end of September, the Russian army has carried out nearly 1,391 air strikes, destroying 1,623 targets of terrorist organizations, including command centers, training bases and ammunition workshops. Terrorist organizations have suffered heavy losses and have been forced to adopt defensive strategies. In addition to Russian air force fighters, the Russian army has also deployed small-scale special forces and TOS-1A fire-breathing tanks in Syria, and Russian naval warships have also launched cruise missiles for long-range strikes.
Judging from the scale of Russia’s military investment in Syria, this is a tactical action below the division level. However, the author believes that,This tactical action can be called a "crowbar with amazing energy", achieved the strategic effect — — Russia has achieved two important strategic goals through its limited military operations in Syria:
First of all, Russia chose to carry the right banner at the right time and decisively launched military action, which stabilized Russia’s sphere of influence in the Middle East and enhanced its international prestige.
Russia considers itself a world power (in fact, it is indeed the largest land power in the world), and of course it cannot sit idly by and watch itself being expelled from this key geopolitical zone of the world, and its last stronghold in the Middle East is Syria. "The right time" means that the United States is playing a game with China, the world’s largest land-sea complex country, on the South China Sea issue. Russian troops at this time can make the United States fall into a dilemma on two fronts in the overall situation; Playing the "anti-terrorism banner" made Russia’s military strike division famous, making the United States and Europe blameless both politically and morally.
Russia’s painstaking plan to send troops has achieved remarkable results: the Syrian government forces quickly stabilized the front line, and the situation began to develop in a favorable direction for Russia, at least removing the security threat it faced in its last stronghold in the Middle East. In addition, before using the Caspian Fleet frigate to launch a cruise missile attack, Russia informed the Iranian side, showing the close relationship between the two countries. The success of military operations has made the world sit up and take notice of Russia. At the same time, it has also set off the inefficiency and incompetence exposed by western countries in cracking down on ISIS in the Middle East, which has invisibly improved Russia’s international prestige.
Secondly, Russia’s series of actions in Syria have changed the offensive and defensive posture of the United States and Russia. At this stage, the future trend of the situation in the Middle East seems to be unfavorable to the United States.
Once upon a time, the high-handed policy of the United States made Russia once face the trend that mountains and rains were coming — — Launch a color revolution and erode Russia’s traditional sphere of influence; Developing shale gas and manipulating the decline of international oil prices will make a radical contribution to the Russian economy; Impose economic sanctions on Russia under the pretext of Ukraine issue … … Russia is caught in a double dilemma of geopolitics and national economy.
This time, Russia’s decisive action in the Middle East has quite the effect of "encircling Wei to save Zhao": the western countries led by the United States have been unable to continue to entangle with Russia on the Ukrainian issue and can only think about how to "stop falling" on the Middle East issue. The development of ISIS is not unrelated to the United States — — From its systematic American machinery and equipment, it can be seen that the United States is not opposed to its development and growth, and Russia’s attack on it may not lack the intention of shocking the mountain.
Because of its outstanding performance in combating terrorist forces, Russia has occupied the commanding heights of morality and public opinion, and the game between Russia and the United States in the Middle East has turned to Russia to attack the United States. In addition, the development of Iran’s strength and the deterioration of the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and the contradiction between the United States and European allies has further deepened due to the refugee problem, at this stage, the future situation in the Middle East seems to be unfavorable to the United States.
However, due to the weak international oil price, the national economic difficulties, the unrest in Ukraine and the wave after wave in Syria,The future of Russian "Giant Bear" is not a Ma Pingchuan.
First of all, the contradiction between goal and strength makes Russia’s military presence in Syria unsustainable.On the one hand, according to western countries’ estimation, Russian military operations in Syria cost 100 million US dollars every day, which is really a big financial burden for a country whose GDP in 2014 was less than 1.5 trillion US dollars. On the other hand, Russia’s military operations have exposed its hidden dangers: Russian planes attack more than 2 times a day, nearly 3 times, and maintain it for many days, which has reached the theoretical limit; Among the Russian frigates launching cruise missiles in the Caspian Sea, the largest type 11661K has a displacement of 1930 tons, and the smallest type 21631K has only 560 tons, all of which are light frigates. In contrast, the displacement of the Type 052C destroyer and the Burke-class destroyer in China and the United States performing similar tasks is 7,000 tons and 9,000 tons respectively. This can be seen from the double embarrassment of the Russian army in finance and technology.
Secondly, it is easy to stop the war at the beginning, and how to end the war openly tests Putin’s political wisdom.In the protracted tug-of-war, the Syrian government forces have been weakened and unable to launch a large-scale counterattack. Russia is in a dilemma: if it does not dispatch ground troops, the previous efforts will be in vain; If ground troops are dispatched, not only will the war costs soar, but the nature of its military operations will change — — The "anti-terrorism banner" may fail, and may stimulate western countries to increase their involvement. If so, Russia may have to fall into a protracted war, which is the embarrassing situation that countries with financial constraints need to try their best to avoid.
In addition, Russia’s deep attack on ISIS in Syria may cause extremist forces to rebound and frequently carry out terrorist attacks on Russia to show revenge.According to the British "Times" website reported on November 8, the Russian Airlines crash on October 31 was caused by a bomb placed on board by the Sinai branch of the "Islamic State" organization.
To sum up, the Russian military’s involvement in Syria has stabilized Russia’s presence in the Middle East to some extent while cracking down on terrorists. However, its strong action did not give Syria the hope of peace, on the contrary, it increased the variables of war. Moreover, due to Russia’s limited national strength and a series of external uncertainties, it is not clear how long this favorable situation can last. (Ma Yao, Special Research Fellow, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University)