Seven economic trends emerge in 2025： Ma Huateng’s voice+Ma Yun’s return+office vacancy rate exceeding 30% reveals social upheaval!

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The current entrepreneurial environment has indeed become more difficult, which is not only from the macro environment, but also the true feelings of many entrepreneurs.

I have a hunch that enterprises will face greater challenges next year, and the main problem lies in the lack of confidence.

I have worked with many listed chairmen of the Shanghai and Beijing Chambers of Commerce or"The man with the iron bowl"I deeply understand the pressure brought by the business environment, as well as the real experiences of many entrepreneurs around me.

At the same time, I am in Beijing with some"Dog legs"After a few months, I can only describe it in one word-"clothing".

If you don’t accept it, you have to accept it. In order to maintain the operation of the enterprise, you have to send cards and money in exchange for the so-called"convenience",After the delivery, people will light my cigarette when they meet.

If you don’t send or even accept abusive treatment, this help"Dog legs"I dare to swear behind closed doors. This will be replaced by a place, I guess."Dog legs"Designate to hit people behind closed doors.

Ladies and gentlemen, don’t fantasize and question. Don’t be naive, don’t think about justice, and don’t do that. It’s no use. I’ll tell you with my actual combat experience:"Sending money is the fastest and best solution"!Other things are really useless and a waste of time. This is the reality, and the result of uncompromising may be that the enterprise is brought down.

Fighting with the sky, fighting with the ground, and fighting with people may all find a way out; But only don’t talk to those who flatter and bully others."Dog legs"Competing for each other, because the power behind them is often overwhelming.

RecallThe best time to start a business,It was an era full of passion and dreams. Encouraged by entrepreneurs such as Ma Yun, countless young people joined the entrepreneurial wave. The environment at that time was relatively relaxed, encouraging innovation and adventure.However, with the advance of the torrent of the times, the fate of individuals and enterprises is often involuntary. Only when the overall environment becomes conducive to entrepreneurship can we succeed more easily.

In the past few years, due to well-known reasons, the economic situation was grim, many industry leaders chose to remain silent, and Ma Yun did not return to China for a long time.In the past two years, the office rent has halved and the vacancy rate has exceeded 30%, which reveals a surprising aspect of the social and economic structure.The residential market has also experienced violent fluctuations, and the sharp drop in house prices has caused widespread concern, but the decline in the office market is more serious.

Recently, a message from a circle of friends has aroused widespread concern on the Internet:An entrepreneur in the live broadcast e-commerce industry issued an appeal late at night, suggesting that his peers give up the deposit and find a new office space with a rent lower than 2.5 yuan/m2/day.According to the entrepreneur, the rent of Hangzhou Future Science and Technology City has dropped sharply, and many large parks even offer rent-free concessions. Even so, it is still difficult to attract tenants.Who would have thought that the once prosperous office market would cool down at such a rapid rate?

This change not only reflects the downward pressure on the economy, but also exposes the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. For entrepreneurs, how to find a way to survive in this environment has become a key problem to be solved urgently. Faced with this reality, we need more flexible strategies and perseverance to deal with the uncertainty in the future.

Office buildings are known as urban economy."barometer"Its origin can be traced back to the end of the 19th century, but until the early 1980s, most people in China were still very unfamiliar with the concept of office buildings. At that time, the office buildings were mainly xz office buildings of zf organs and units.(Without yanlun’s freedom, I dare not type many words, let alone say them, so I call them "cows, cows" in this environment.).

With the promotion of the reform and opening-up policy, more and more foreign-funded enterprises flock to China to seek business opportunities. However, these enterprises in China’s major cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, are faced with the dilemma of finding suitable office places and have to choose hotels to handle their daily business and liaison affairs. This situation has given birth to a strong demand for modern commercial office services.

In this context, landmark buildings such as the Chocolate Building in Beijing (namely, Beijing International Building), the Friendship Building in Shanghai and the Diwang Building in Shenzhen came into being, and modern office buildings sprang up one after another, gradually forming the central business district (CBD) of the city, marking the development of the office market in China has entered a new stage.

These office buildings are home to key industries such as finance, high-tech, insurance, etc., and the business elites can release huge economic efficiency when talking and laughing. Seeing this scene, investors have turned their attention to office buildings, and the "building economy" came into being, and the office market gradually took shape.

With the state-owned enterprises, foreign enterprises and private enterprises moving into the Central Business District (CBD) one after another, office buildings have become hot assets in first-tier cities. Data show that in 2007, the demand for office buildings in Shanghai was in short supply, and the vacancy rate of Grade A office buildings was as low as 1.6%.

At the same time, the office market has contributed remarkable economic benefits to first-tier cities and become their veritable "vertical printing machine". This phenomenon not only reflects the importance of office buildings as the core of commercial activities, but also highlights the important engine role of economic development in first-tier cities.

In 2020, among the 285 office buildings in Shanghai Lujiazui Financial City, 4 have a tax revenue of more than 6 billion yuan, 20 have a tax revenue of more than 2 billion yuan and 32 have a tax revenue of more than 1 billion yuan, and the tax revenue of 110 office buildings has reached the level of 100 million yuan. In Shenzhen, less than 20 square kilometers of Yuehai Street, there are more than 100 office buildings of listed companies, and the total annual GDP has exceeded 300 billion yuan. In the face of such a huge economic volume, who can not be moved?

In recent years, with the gradual expansion of domestic enterprises to second-tier cities, second-tier cities have used the experience of first-tier cities for reference in order to attract investment, and increased the intensity of office building construction. According to the data, as of 2019, more than 200 cities or urban areas in China have issued plans or policies related to building economy. High-grade office buildings have mushroomed in major cities, which indicates that commercial real estate in China has entered a new stage of development.

Every night, the light show of CBD in each city is dizzying, and on the surface, it presents a scene of economic prosperity. However, behind this bright light, there are many hidden crises.With the advancement of urban transformation and upgrading, more and more cities have concentrated on releasing office supply, resulting in a long-term high vacancy rate.

according toWhite Paper on China Office Building Market in 2021At present, there are 19 cities in the mainland that are at the peak of construction. The average daily rent of high-quality office buildings in these cities is only 2.2 yuan/square meter, and the vacancy rate is close to 40%.According to market data, at the end of last year, the vacancy rate of office buildings in several major first-tier cities in China exceeded 20%: the vacancy rate in Beijing was 21.7%, and that in Shanghai was 21.8%, up 5 percentage points from the previous year; The situation in Shenzhen is even more serious, with the vacancy rate of Grade A office buildings exceeding 30.6%.

It is worth noting that the above official data may not fully reflect the actual situation.There are rumors that the actual vacancy rate in Shenzhen may be as high as 70%.Such a high vacancy rate has aroused public concern."oversupply"Wide criticism. This not only reveals the potential risks of the commercial real estate market, but also challenges the urban planning and development strategy.

In order to reduce losses, owners have reduced rents to attract enterprises to settle in.According to data from dtz,In the third quarter of 2024, the rent of Beijing office market fell to 266.1 yuan/square meter/month, down 4.7% from the previous month and 13.5% from the same period last year.According to a report by Jones Lang LaSalle,In the third quarter of this year, the average rent of Grade A office buildings in 40 major cities nationwide was 80.3 yuan/square meter/month, with a decrease of 0.4% to 5.6% from the previous month.

This means that the vacancy rate of office buildings has reached a new high for more than a decade, while the rental price has fallen to the lowest point for more than a decade.There are even rumors that many large parks have directly adopted rent-free measures in order to save property fees. Even so, the high vacancy rate of office buildings is still difficult to be effectively alleviated. Once a smash hit, the symbolic building regarded as the development of market economy no longer has its former style and prosperity after a large number of office areas are closed.

The future of office buildings has become an urgent problem to be solved. In order to reactivate this market and meet the new market demand, relevant departments have made various attempts, which have aroused great concern from all walks of life. The main measures focus on the following aspects:

The first is to re-evaluate and upgrade the business function of the office building. Leading enterprises and chain-owner enterprises are introduced into super-Grade A commercial buildings to enhance the concentration and output intensity of business formats and build a brand of characteristic commercial buildings; Grade a buildings focus on introducing high-quality enterprises to improve the quality of operation and service; Grade B buildings promote functional integration and compound development, and improve the level of property management; Class C buildings provide flexible and low-cost office space for small and micro enterprises through micro-renovation, micro-renewal and shared office mode.

Secondly, carry out functional transformation of commercial buildings, such as transforming office buildings into spaces for other purposes such as hotels, hospitals or elderly care facilities. This not only re-plans the physical attributes of the building, but also meets the current market demand, policy orientation and community function demand.

In the process of seeking transformation, a major challenge that enterprises need to overcome is to obtain the support and cooperation of relevant departments to ensure that they can successfully obtain the necessary business licenses. In addition, the transformation strategy of "changing business to living" has also become one of the choices of many enterprises, providing a feasible way.

Through these comprehensive adjustment and reform measures, the office market is expected to gradually adapt to the new economic environment and development trend, and find a new path suitable for its own development.

Transforming office buildings into residential areas can not only effectively cope with the rising vacancy rate of commercial buildings, but also alleviate the current situation of housing shortage to some extent. However, this measure needs to be handled with caution, because it may lead to social contradictions and new unfairness. There is a significant difference in land price between commercial land and residential land, and residential land is usually more expensive."Business changes to residence"The project enters the housing market at a lower cost. For example, the unit price of a house in a big city can reach 60,000 yuan per square meter, while the unit price of the "business to live" project is only 20,000 yuan. This price gap may have an impact on the existing housing market, and how to balance the interests of other housing owners has become a big challenge.

It is not easy to implement the above measures. We still have a long way to go to revitalize the office market on the premise of ensuring social fairness as much as possible. At one time, the office building market contributed super-high economic benefits to the first-tier cities, and was praised as one of many entrepreneurs."vertical banknote printing machine".However, with the deterioration of the economic environment in recent years, this "money printing machine" seems to have become a "meat grinder", and many entrepreneurs have lost their money and been displaced.

However, there have been two symbolic events recently:Ma Huateng, who has always been low-key, wrote in People’s Daily, and Ma Yun also returned to China with high profile.

Ma Huateng’s article is entitled"Contributing Internet Power to Economic Recovery"He expressed his confidence in the bright future of private enterprises. These landmark events not only reflect that China’s private economy is experiencing a turning point, but also send a positive signal, which indicates that there may be more support policies in the future to help enterprises recover and develop.

In this context, how to activate the office market while ensuring fairness will be an important issue for some time to come. Through reasonable policy guidance and support, the office market is expected to gradually adapt to the new economic environment and development trend, and find a new path suitable for its own development.

Recently, a series of legal system construction, such as the legislative advancement of the private economy promotion law, have provided a solid legal guarantee for private enterprises to go into battle lightly. At the same time, actively explore digital consumption, aiming at creating richer consumption scenarios, modes and formats, and further stimulating market vitality. We firmly believe that with the support of such policies, private enterprises will usher in a bright future, and China’s economy will also ride the wind and waves and strive to move forward. It is an important task to improve quality and efficiency, optimize business layout and promote healthy and sustainable development of various industries.

It is worth noting that Ma Huateng, who has always been known for his low profile, has made a high-profile voice this time.People’s dailyPublish articles to emphasize the bright future of private economy. This move not only sent a strong positive signal, but also injected a shot in the arm for the development of private enterprises.Ma Huateng said in the article that he believes that private enterprises will have bright prospects and promises to contribute to the economic recovery.

At the same time, Ma Yun has been particularly active recently. As we all know, Ma Yun has been traveling abroad for the past two years and rarely returns to China to participate in foreign activities or make public speeches. However, Ma Yun’s sudden return to China at the end of November caused widespread concern, which not only attracted a hot search, but also excited the entire Alibaba Group, and the whole network was hotly debated.

Some employees recalled:"The last time I saw Mr. Ma was the’ Double Eleven’ in 2022. Time flies, but the intimacy remains unchanged."This unexpected joy made the whole park boil. Ma Yun looks cheerful and greets everyone with a smile. This long-lost interaction has brought inspiration and confidence to many people.

Ma Huateng and Ma Yun, two iconic figures in China’s Internet industry, have sent positive signals one after another, indicating that China’s private economy is welcoming new development opportunities and injecting strong confidence and support into the market.

I have been paying close attention to the opinions of top entrepreneurs.Because their opinions often have important reference value.Ma Huateng and Ma Yun spoke at the same time.I don’t think this is an accidental phenomenon.But gj hopes to convey an important signal through these entrepreneurs:Gj is attaching great importance to the development of private economy and injecting a shot in the arm for private entrepreneurs to enhance their confidence in future development.

Combined with a number of recently released policies, it can be predicted that 2025 will be a crucial year for the country to promote the development of private economy. This year is full of challenges and countless expectations. According to the analysis of many experts and folk wise men, there may be seven major trends in China in 2025:

First of all, in the housing market and the stock market,"maintaining stability"Will be the main theme.In recent years, house prices have continued to fall, and real estate companies have frequent crises.The top management decided on October 9th."Stabilize the property market and stock market, and prevent and resolve risks and external shocks in key areas".Despite the policy support, the market temporarily recovered.But in my opinion.In the next two or three years, house prices are likely to continue to drop, and real investment and consumer confidence have not fully recovered.

Secondly,The life of ordinary people will be even more tight.. Since the mask, it has become more and more difficult to make money, and it is under great pressure to work or do business. Even if many people work hard, they still can’t make ends meet after deducting the cost of living.Fall into a vicious circle of getting busier and poorer..

Third,Spiritual consumption demand will look for new exports. The degradation of consumption has prompted people to change from luxury to simple life, and at the same time, some people have begun to seek ways of inner peace, such as obtaining spiritual comfort through cultural phenomena such as Dong Yuhui, Dao Lang and Li Ziqi.

Fourth,The aggravation of aging and the shortage of young labor force have formed a situation of "green and yellow".With China stepping into a deeply aging society, the fertility rate of post-80s and post-90s declined, which led to the problem of human resources gap in traditional industries. How to inherit and develop it has become an urgent problem.

Fifth,The development of AI technology has impacted traditional entities.Although AI has improved efficiency, it has also accelerated the elimination process of some industries, especially those traditional industries and manufacturing industries that have been hit by e-commerce, facing unprecedented survival challenges.

Sixth,The phenomenon of "hollowing out" may appear in big cities.Over the past few decades,"dream of entering the city"It attracts countless migrant workers and young people to flood into cities, but now the high cost of living and uncertain career prospects force many people to choose to leave, leading to the gradual decline of urban vitality.

Seventh,The employment situation may deteriorate further.Factors such as the global economic slowdown and trade frictions may lead to an increase in layoffs, and the responsibility for creating jobs is difficult to be borne by only a few surviving small enterprises and individual operators, especially in the face of the surge in the number of college graduates.The job market in 2025 will be even more severe.

To sum up, China’s economic and social development in 2025 will face many uncertainties, but it will also have the opportunity to meet the challenges and realize transformation and development through policy adjustment and technological innovation.